Stock Evaluator (Enhanced)

⚠️ CRITICAL: MANDATORY DELIVERABLES CHECKLIST

Every analysis MUST include ALL of these:

• ☐ Technical Analysis (price action, indicators, key levels, Ichimoku Cloud)
• ☐ Fundamental Analysis (business, financials, competitive position)
• ☐ Advanced Financial Metrics (F-Score, Z-Score, M-Score, Max Drawdown, Value Trap Score)
• ☐ Investor Persona Scores (8 legendary investor frameworks)
• ☐ Valuation Assessment (multiple methods with margin of safety)
• ☐ Bull vs. Bear Case (both sides with balance assessment)
• ☐ Clear Recommendation (BUY / HOLD / SELL with conviction rating)
• ☐ Alternative Candidates (if SELL: provide 3-5 better alternatives)
• ☐ Enhanced Quant-Style Dashboard (React dashboard with 60+ metrics, Ichimoku, investor personas, TOP NEWS, and key notes)

If you cannot complete any item, STOP and ask for clarification.

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⚠️ CRITICAL: DATA INTEGRITY RULES

ZERO FABRICATION POLICY

NEVER fabricate, estimate, or hallucinate ANY numeric data point. Every metric in the dashboard MUST come from:

1. A web search result with a cited source
2. Company filings (10-K, 10-Q, earnings reports)
3. Official financial data providers

If data cannot be found → Use "N/A" or "--"

MANDATORY WEB SEARCHES (minimum per analysis)

You MUST perform these searches before populating the dashboard:

Search #	Query Template	Data Retrieved
1	"[TICKER] stock price market cap P/E ratio"	Price, Market Cap, P/E
2	"[TICKER] ROE ROA profit margin 2024 annual report"	Financial ratios
3	"[TICKER] revenue growth earnings growth FY2024"	Growth rates (REPORTED)
4	"[TICKER] Piotroski F-Score"	F-Score (or calculate)
5	"[TICKER] insider trading SEC Form 4 2025"	Insider buys/sells
6	"[TICKER] short interest percentage float"	Short interest
7	"[TICKER] RSI MACD 50-day 200-day moving average beta volatility"	Technical indicators
8	"[TICKER] analyst price target consensus"	Analyst targets

DATA SOURCE HIERARCHY

Use sources in this priority order:

1. Official company filings (SEC EDGAR, company investor relations)
2. Exchange data (NYSE, NASDAQ, LSE official)
3. Verified financial data (Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, MarketWatch)
4. SEC Form 4 (for insider trading ONLY)
5. FINRA/exchange (for short interest ONLY)

PROHIBITED

• Using training knowledge for ANY specific current numbers
• Analyst reports (per user preference)
• Estimates without sourcing
• "Common knowledge" assumptions

HANDLING UNAVAILABLE DATA

Situation	Action	Display
Metric not found after searching	Display "N/A"	value: "N/A"
Data is outdated (>1 year old)	Note the date	value: "15.2% (2023)"
Conflicting sources	Use most authoritative	Note in analysis
Calculated metric (F-Score)	Show calculation	Explain in text
Insider data unavailable	Show "N/A"	insBuys: "N/A"

CRITICAL: Zero means "zero occurred" - NEVER substitute zeros for missing data.

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STANDARDIZED METRIC LABELS

Use these EXACT labels in the dashboard (matches reference screenshots):

Row 1: PRICE & VALUATION | FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

Label	Notes
Price:	$XX.XX or €XX.XX
Market Cap:	$XXB or €XXB
Trailing P/E:	XX.XX
Forward P/E:	XX.XX
Subsector P/E:	XX.XX or N/A
PEG (1Y):	X.XX with benchmark (<1)
ROE:	XX.XX% with benchmark (>20%)
ROA:	XX.XX% with benchmark (>10%)
Profit Margin:	XX.XX% with benchmark (>20%)
Operative Margin:	XX.XX% with benchmark (>20%) - NOTE: "Operative" not "Operating"
Gross Margin:	XX.XX% with benchmark (>40%)
ROIC:	XX.X% with benchmark (>15%)

Row 2: GROWTH METRICS | RISK INDICATORS

Label	Notes
Revenue (YoY):	XX.XX% with benchmark (>10%) - REPORTED only
Earning (YoY):	XX.XX% with benchmark (>0%) - REPORTED only
EPS (TTM):	$X.XX
Forward EPS:	$X.XX
Growth Rates:	Capped: X.X% / Uncapped: X.X%
Analyst Target:	$XX.XX
CRS (0-1):	X.XX with benchmark (Medium)
Debt/Equity (mrq):	X.XX with benchmark (0.5-1)
Piotroski F:	X with benchmark (≥7)
Altman Z:	X.XX with benchmark (>3)
Beneish M:	X.XX with benchmark (<-1.78)
Value Trap:	XX (Label)

Row 3: LIQUIDITY & FREE CASH FLOW | INSIDER & SENTIMENT & CLASS

Label	Notes
Current Ratio:	X.XX with benchmark (1-2)
Cash:	$X.XB
Debt:	$X.XB or N/A
FCF Growth 5Y:	XX.X% with benchmark (>5%)
FCF Yield:	X.XX% with benchmark (>4%)
FCF Margin:	XX.XX% with benchmark (>15%)
Payout Ratio:	XX.XX% with benchmark (<50%)
Buys (12M):	X - from SEC Form 4 or N/A
Sells (12M):	X - from SEC Form 4 or N/A
Net Shares (12M):	+/-XXK - from SEC Form 4 or N/A
Short Int (%):	X.X%
Sentiment / Articles:	+X.XXX / XX (Positive/Negative)
Stock: [Type] + Div Yield:	Combined: "Stock: Growth" + "Div Yield: X.XX%"
Sector/Industry:	Combined: "Sector / Industry"

Row 4: QUALITY SCORES | MOAT & OTHER

Label	Notes
CQVS:	XX.XX with benchmark range
Label:	Strong/Moderate/Weak
Valuation:	XX.XX
Quality:	XX.XX
Strength:	XX.XX
Integrity:	XX.XX
Buffett Moat:	X with benchmark (4-7)
Greenblatt (MF):	EY: X.X% / ROC: X.X% or N/A
Beta: + Vol 1Y:	Combined: "Beta: X.XX" + "Vol 1Y: XX.X%"
Earnings Predict.:	XX.X% with benchmark (>80%)
Drawdown (5Y):	-XX.X% with label (Low/Mid/High)
Completeness: + Data Quality:	Combined: "XX.X%" + "High/Medium/Low"

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STANDARDIZED BENCHMARKS (Single Source of Truth)

Use these EXACT thresholds for color coding:

Metric	Green (Good)	Yellow (Neutral)	Red (Warning)
ROE	>20%	10-20%	<10%
ROA	>10%	5-10%	<5%
Profit Margin	>20%	10-20%	<10%
Operative Margin	>20%	10-20%	<10%
Gross Margin	>40%	25-40%	<25%
ROIC	>15%	8-15%	<8%
Debt/Equity	<1	1-2	>2
Current Ratio	1-2	0.5-1 or 2-3	<0.5 or >3
Piotroski F	≥7	4-6	≤3
Altman Z	>2.99	1.81-2.99	<1.81
Beneish M	<-2.22	-2.22 to -1.78	>-1.78
PEG (1Y)	<1	1-2	>2
RSI (14)	30-50	50-70	>70 or <30
Short Interest	<5%	5-10%	>10%
FCF Yield	>5%	2-5%	<2%
FCF Margin	>15%	10-15%	<10%
Dividend Yield	>2%	1-2%	<1% or >8%
Value Trap	0-39	40-59	60-100
Max Drawdown	>-30%	-30% to -50%	<-50%
Revenue Growth	>10%	0-10%	<0%
Earnings Growth	>0%	-10% to 0%	<-10%

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Overview

This skill provides institutional-grade evaluation of potential stock investments. Unlike portfolio analysis which reviews existing positions, this skill evaluates stocks you're considering buying or deciding whether to purchase.

The evaluation answers:

• Should I buy this stock?
• At what price should I enter?
• How much should I allocate?
• What's my upside and downside?
• When should I sell?

Default Currency: € (Euro)

All monetary values in the dashboard should be displayed in Euro (€) as the default currency:

• Price: €42.13
• Market Cap: €78.3B
• Analyst Target: €56.45
• Entry/Stop/Target prices: €38, €35, €56
• EPS values: €1.39, €1.91

IMPORTANT: Use REPORTED Growth Rates

For the dashboard metrics "Rev Growth" and "Earn Growth":

• USE REPORTED GROWTH - not underlying, adjusted, or organic figures
• Reported figures reflect actual GAAP/IFRS numbers including FX, acquisitions, disposals
• This provides a more accurate picture of what investors actually received
• Example: If underlying growth is 7% but reported is 2.2%, use 2.2%
• Same for earnings: Use reported EPS growth, not adjusted EPS growth

Core Purpose

Stock Evaluator is for:

• ✅ Evaluating potential investments BEFORE buying
• ✅ Analyzing watchlist candidates
• ✅ Getting buy/hold/sell recommendations with specific prices
• ✅ Comparing multiple investment opportunities
• ✅ Finding better alternatives to current consideration

NOT for:

• ❌ Reviewing existing portfolio positions (use Portfolio Analyst skill)
• ❌ General stock market questions
• ❌ Stock screening or discovery from scratch
• ❌ Options, derivatives, or crypto analysis

Evaluation Framework

Five Pillars of Stock Evaluation

1. Valuation Assessment

• Is the stock undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued?
• Multiple valuation methods (DCF, relative, Peter Lynch, asset-based)
• Margin of safety requirement (15-30%)
• Fair value estimate with confidence range

2. Quality Analysis

• Business model strength and competitive moat
• Financial health and trends (5-10 year view)
• Management quality and capital allocation
• Industry position and competitive advantages

3. Timing Assessment

• Technical setup and entry points
• Near-term catalysts and events
• Market sentiment and positioning
• Optimal entry price range

4. Position Sizing

• Allocation recommendation (% of portfolio)
• Based on conviction, risk, and diversification
• Maximum allocation limits
• Risk-adjusted sizing

5. Conviction Rating

• Strong Buy: High conviction, clear undervaluation, low risk
• Buy: Good opportunity, reasonable valuation, moderate risk
• Hold: Fairly valued, no compelling reason to buy now
• Avoid: Overvalued, significant risks, or better alternatives exist

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Value Trap Indicator

What It Is

A Value Trap is when a stock appears undervalued (low P/E, low P/B) but is actually cheap for valid fundamental reasons. The stock keeps declining despite appearing "cheap."

Value Trap Score Calculation (0-100, LOWER = more genuine, HIGHER = more trap)

Components to evaluate (ADD points for trap indicators):

1. Price Momentum (25 points max)

• 6-month price change vs market: If underperforming by >20%, ADD 15-25 points
• 12-month price change: Sustained decline = ADD 10-20 points
• If price momentum is POSITIVE: ADD 0 points

2. Earnings Quality (25 points max)

• EPS trend (3 years): Declining = ADD 10-25 points
• Revenue trend: Declining = ADD 5-15 points
• Margin trend: Compressing = ADD 5-10 points
• If earnings quality is STRONG: ADD 0 points

3. Balance Sheet Health (25 points max)

• Debt levels increasing? ADD 5-15 points
• Cash flow negative or declining? ADD 10-20 points
• Working capital deteriorating? ADD 5-10 points
• If balance sheet is HEALTHY: ADD 0 points

4. Valuation Context (25 points max)

• Is low multiple justified by declining fundamentals? ADD 10-25 points
• Compare current fundamentals to when multiple was higher
• If fundamentals justify valuation: ADD 0 points

Scoring Formula

Value Trap Score = Momentum Penalty + Quality Penalty + Balance Sheet Penalty + Valuation Penalty

(Score ranges from 0 to 100, where 0 = definitely genuine value, 100 = definite value trap)

Score Interpretation

• 0-19: Genuine Value (likely undervalued, fundamentals intact) - GREEN
• 20-39: Probably Genuine (minor concerns, monitor) - LIGHT GREEN
• 40-59: Caution Zone (mixed signals, proceed carefully) - YELLOW
• 60-79: Likely Trap (multiple red flags) - ORANGE
• 80-100: Strong Trap Signal (avoid) - RED

Display Format

Value Trap: 21 (Genuine)

Color coding: green <40, yellow 40-60, red >60

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Investor Persona Scores

Score each stock against 8 famous investor philosophies (0-10 scale). This helps users understand what type of investor the stock suits.

1. Warren Buffett Score

Based on "The Warren Buffett Way" - seeks durable competitive advantages

Key metrics weighted:

• ROE (>20%): 2 points
• Profit margin (>15%): 2 points
• Free cash flow positive & growing: 2 points
• Moat strength (brand, pricing power): 2 points
• Predictable earnings: 2 points

Buffett likes: Predictable businesses, pricing power, low capex needs, consistent profitability

2. Charlie Munger Score

Based on "Poor Charlie's Almanack" - mental latticework, inversion thinking

Focus on: What could go WRONG (inversion principle)

Scoring: Start at 10, subtract penalties:

• High debt (D/E > 2): -3 points
• Volatile earnings: -2 points
• Poor management history: -2 points
• No competitive moat: -2 points
• Accounting red flags: -3 points

3. Ray Dalio Score

Based on "Principles" - All-Weather portfolio, economic machine understanding

Key metrics:

• D/E ratio < 1: 2 points
• Beta < 1: 2 points
• Stable margins across cycles: 2 points
• Low earnings volatility: 2 points
• Recession resistance history: 2 points

Dalio likes: Deleveraging plays, operational efficiency, cycle resilience

4. Peter Lynch Score

Based on "One Up on Wall Street" - GARP (Growth at Reasonable Price)

Primary metric: PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)

• PEG < 0.5: 10 points
• PEG 0.5-1.0: 8 points
• PEG 1.0-1.5: 6 points
• PEG 1.5-2.0: 4 points
• PEG > 2.0: 2 points

Adjustment factors:

• +1 if earnings growing consistently
• +1 if business easy to understand
• -1 if declining industry

5. Benjamin Graham Score

Based on "The Intelligent Investor" - Margin of Safety

Graham criteria (2 points each, max 10):

• P/E < 15
• P/B < 1.5
• Current ratio > 2
• Positive earnings 10 years
• Dividend paid 20+ years

6. Joel Greenblatt Score

Based on "The Little Book That Beats the Market" - Magic Formula

Combines two rankings:

• Earnings Yield (EBIT/EV): Higher = better
• Return on Capital (EBIT/Net Fixed Assets + Working Capital): Higher = better

Scoring: Combined rank in top 10% = 10 points, scaled down

7. John Templeton Score

Based on contrarian, global value investing

Key factors:

• Trading at multi-year lows: +3 points
• Out of favor with analysts: +2 points
• Strong fundamentals despite pessimism: +3 points
• Global perspective (non-US opportunity): +2 points

8. George Soros Score

Based on "The Alchemy of Finance" - Reflexivity

Key factors:

• Momentum and trend strength: 3 points
• Macro tailwinds: 3 points
• Market perception shifting: 2 points
• Inflection point catalyst: 2 points

Soros likes: Macro plays, reflexive situations, trend participation

Display Format

Show 8 badges around radar chart with scores and color coding:

• Green (7-10): Strong fit
• Yellow (4-6.9): Moderate fit
• Red (0-3.9): Poor fit

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Enhanced Technical Analysis

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis

Components to Calculate:

• Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): (9-period high + 9-period low) / 2
• Kijun-sen (Base Line): (26-period high + 26-period low) / 2
• Senkou Span A: (Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead
• Senkou Span B: (52-period high + 52-period low) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead
• Chikou Span (Lagging Span): Current close plotted 26 periods back

Cloud (Kumo): Area between Senkou Span A and B

Signals to Identify and Display:

• TK Bullish Cross: Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen (bullish) - mark with ◆
• TK Bearish Cross: Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen (bearish) - mark with ◆
• Kumo Twist Bullish: Cloud changes from red to green - mark with ◆
• Kumo Twist Bearish: Cloud changes from green to red - mark with ◆
• Price vs Cloud: Above cloud (bullish), Below cloud (bearish), In cloud (neutral)

Dual PEG Ratios

• PEG (1Y): P/E ÷ 1-Year Forward Growth Estimate
• PEG (5Y): P/E ÷ 5-Year Historical Growth Rate
• Both provide different perspectives on growth valuation

FCF Margin

• Formula: Free Cash Flow / Revenue × 100
• Benchmark: >15% is excellent, >10% is good
• Shows cash generation efficiency relative to sales

News Sentiment & Short Interest

• News Sentiment: -1 to +1 scale based on recent article sentiment
• Short Interest: % of float sold short (>10% = high, <5% = low)
• Both indicate market sentiment and potential squeeze/reversal

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Fundamental Analysis Process

1. Business Understanding (Always First)

What to Analyze:

• What does the company do? (products, services, business model)
• Revenue sources and breakdown
• Target customers and markets
• Competitive advantages (moat sources)
• Market position and share
• Industry dynamics and trends

Management Evaluation:

• CEO background, tenure, track record
• CFO and key executives
• Capital allocation decisions (dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, R&D)
• Management compensation alignment
• Insider trading patterns (buying is bullish signal)
• Leadership quality from earnings calls and letters

Competitive Position:

• Market share and trends
• Key competitors (identify 3-5 direct peers)
• What differentiates this company?
• Sustainable competitive advantages?

2. Financial Analysis (5-10 Year View)

Research Process Order:

1. Latest 10-K first - Understand current business and recent results
2. Go back 5-10 years through historical 10-Ks - Understand evolution
3. Review last 2-3 years of 10-Qs - Current trajectory
4. Examine proxy statem